Since 2015 there has only been one
performer who has managed to win in this category twice – Zendaya for Euphoria.
She is eligible to win her third Emmy this year but as you'll see the odds
are much against.
More interestingly three of the
greatest actress in 21st century television are competing against
each other and all of them have compelling narratives to win this year besides
the incredible performances they gave. I don't envy the voters this year.
Here we go.
Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age. For
Playing: Bertha Russell, permanently establishing her role at the head of New
York Society at the cost of her own family.
Pro: There was
once a time when Coon couldn't get nominated no matter how great her work as in
so many classic TV shows. Now she's been nominated for the third consecutive
year by the Emmys. It's a reach to call her work as Bertha her greatest
performance but its certainly becoming one of the most fascinating in 21st
Century TV. We see a woman who is willing to do anything to get a place in
society and in Season 3 the bill comes do as she forces her daughter to marry a
man she doesn't love and permanently severs a wedge between her son and her
husband that may never be repaired. By the end of the season she has reached
the top of the food chain but she is also completely alone and has no one to
share the victory with. You would feel sympathy for her had you not spent the
last three seasons watching her willing to climb over anyone who got in her
way. Coon has yet to win an Emmy in four attempts and considering that many
were certain she was going to win last year for her very different work in The
White Lotus this would be a good attempt to make it right. Con: Look
if they decide to give the Emmy to Coon I'm absolutely not going to complain.
She's been owed one since The Leftovers. But somehow I just don't think
its time yet and we all know she's going to be back next year with Season 4
just around the corner.
Chase Infiniti, The Testaments. For
Playing: Agnes McKenzie, a teen in a prep school in Gilead where obedience is
brutally enforced. Pro: Chase
Infiniti, as they say, is having a moment. She was the unlikely heroine of last
year Academy Award winner One Battle After Another playing one different
leader of a resistance and now she's in the sequel to The Handmaid's Tale playing
a very different leader. One could argue that she's been typecast but she's
taking the mantle of Elisabeth Moss another great former child actress who had
her moment of greatness in the original series and passes the gauntlet to
Infiniti in this show. It's a different world then the one we're used to from Handmaid's
but Agnes manages to lead us through in what amounts to a more effective YA
drama then the one we got from Handmaid's Tale. Infiniti is going places
and it shows here. Con: Infiniti was the only nominee for The
Testaments and as Kathy Bates found out last year that rarely leads to a
win. More to the point she's the only new face in a category full of actresses
who've already been nominated multiple times. Throw in the fact that the moment
of the world of Gilead in our culture has passed and its safe to case there's
no real chance of her winning this year.
Keri Russell, The Diplomat. (DARK
HORSE) For Playing: Kate Wyler, staying behind in London while her husband
takes on the job as Vice President. Pro: There are multiple reasons why Russell is the most
deserving nominee in the bunch besides the incredible performance she's given.
First there's the fact she's managed to win both the SAG-AFTRA award in this
category and the Astra just a few weeks ago. Second her track record with the
Emmys is far worse than anyone else. The Diplomat is now the third
classic television show she's been associated with and yet after five Emmy
nominations (none of them for Felicity which she won a Golden Globe for)
she's the sentimental favorite as well as the critical one. And third there's
the fact of her husband. Matthew Rhys is certain to win an Emmy for his work in
Widow's Bay and I'd love it if the two leads of The Americans could
both win Emmys on the same night. Considering that show never got the
appropriate love from the Emmys over its run, I now think Matthew Rhy and Keri
Russell need to get a lot of love from the Emmys for this point forward. An
Emmy for the third iconic performance Russell has given in her career wouldn't
make me unhappy. Con: As with Carrie Coon I have zero problem if she
ends up winning on Emmy night. But I also think that the Emmys is just starting
to catch up with how great The Diplomat is. Furthermore with Season 4
just around the corner Russell will yet again be a frontrunner in this category
next year. I think it's going to happen but not yet. In large part because…
Rhea Seehorn, Pluribus. (EXPERTS
PICK, MY PICK) For Playing: Carol Sturka, one of only thirteen humans left on
Earth when a hive mind takes control of the planet. Pro: I really wonder if Seehorn channeled
her anger during Pluribus because she lost Best Supporting Actress in a
Drama to Jennifer Coolidge for The White Lotus. That's certainly a
grudge that would make me angry towards the world. But seriously ever since Pluribus
debuted Seehorn has pretty much been winning every award in sight. She took
the Golden Globe and Critics Choice for Drama beating Russell and Coon in both
categories. This past month she won the TCA award for Best Dramatic
Performance, full stop. And the fact is Seehorn's Carol is pretty much the only
center of gravity we can focus on throughout Pluribus entire first
season. There are entire episodes where she's the only actress onscreen for
most if not all of them. And much of her work is built not on dialogue but on
long stretches of silence or monologues where she has to express her frustrations
to herself. I don't think any show in a very long time has centered on a single
character to this extent and I've never seen anyone rise to the challenge so
excellently as Seehorn has as Carol. She may not be the heroine we want, but
she is the heroine Earth needs. Throw in the fact she somehow never won for Better
Call Saul – which I'm still angry about – and I think its her time. Con:
One can't rule out the possibility that Russell could manage an upset given
that she's beaten her twice this cycle.
Zendaya, Euphoria. For Playing:
Rue, stuck in the middle of a drug war after graduating high school. Pro: It was the end of a long journey for
Rue and even though it was almost inevitable where it was going to finish you
spent most of the season hoping that there was a way back on the path she'd
chosen. Most of Rue's journey was framed as a spiritual one and while most of
the rest of the show struggled watching her battle her way back against the
forces against her, hoping against hope she could find a way out was still a
battle. Zendaya has already gone two for two over the first two seasons; there
have always been a chance she could make it a three-peat. Con: My
readers know my bias towards Euphoria has never gone away. So let's look
at the facts. Even before the third season debuted there was a backlash
building against it. The moment it debuted almost every critic who'd ever had
something positive to say about Euphoria had nothing good to say about
it. By the series finale TV Guide was jeering the series finale which goes to
show just how far it had fallen. No one thought it deserved to be nominated for
Best Drama and it only received five nominations. Zendaya's nomination no doubt
has more to do with the way the Emmys usually operates: nominating the same
actor for each season regardless how good the show is. Her nomination is in no
doubt recognition because of the great actress and box office star Zendaya has
become. Gold Derby measured this. Before Season Three debuted Zendaya was the
favorite to win again in this category: by the time it ended she's now at four
percent behind Russell and Seehorn. It was a hell of a run but it's over and
not just because Euphoria is.
PREDICTION: Seehorn finally gets a chance to be
happy on the Emmy stage.
Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding
Supporting Actor in a Drama. This one I'm going to have a lot of trouble with.
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