Monday, August 24, 2026

My Predictions for the 2026 Emmys, Week 2, Part 1: Outstanding Drama Series

 

 

Last year for the first time in my memory we had what amounted to an upset in this category as The Pitt managed to sweep past the heavy favorite Severance and deservedly won Best Drama. Now it is very much a critical and audience favorite and ever since then the odds deservedly are on it repeating in this category.

That said we can't rule out the possibility lightning could strike twice as this is a category full of formidable contenders – especially one where the show begins with a force taking over the world. So with that in mind let's run through the nominees for Best Drama.

 

The Diplomat (Netflix) Pro: Each year The Diplomat keeps getting more and more recognition from the Emmys. Last year it got just two nominations. For Season 3, eight and six were critical ones. As Kate Wyler finds herself in the position that the Vice President she was about to accuse of treason has just become President – and that her husband has now taken the job she spent two seasons being groomed for – the world of The Diplomat keeps getting darker and yet somehow more entertaining. Keri Russell continues to excel in her third classic drama and she is supporting by arguably the most top-heavy class of actors any show has. This series was the 21st century version of The West Wing even before Alison Janney and Bradley Whitford became the President and First Gentleman and while the idealism of the older series is absent, the realpolitik and sparkling dialogue is present. A slow-building triumph. Con: I can see it winning some awards for acting (see later articles) but not the big prize.

 

The Gilded Age (HBO) Pro: This was the year America stopped hatewatching The Gilded Age and acknowledged what it had always been: one of the best dramas of the decade. Perhaps the seven Emmy nominations it got in 2024 helped it become clear as well. But Season Three upped the already impressive gain by the writers, directors and the extraordinary cast as the status quo became permanently disrupted in both the Russell household and the Van Rijn one. In the former Bertha finally managed to achieve everything she had always wanted in New York society but the result came at the cost of both the family unit and the marriage that she'd increasingly sacrificed for her own ends. In the latter Agnes and Ada spent much of the season trying to figure out who was head of the household while Ada struggled with the loss of her husband. Perhaps joining them together are Marion and Larry each of whom represent the next generation much against the will of their society. Led by a cast of the some of the greatest actresses in TV history from Carrie Coon and Christine Baranski all the way down to an increasing guest cast (Claire Huxtable as an antagonist? Who'd have believed it?) the show cemented its place among the best dramas of the decade. Con: As incredible as The Gilded Age on its network alone it features some of the greatest dramas of its era. The buzz is building but it's not coming this year.

 

A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms (HBO) Pro: I didn't think it was possible to create a Game Of Thrones series for people who hated Game of Thrones. And yet somehow this series, sent a century before the main one, is basically the antithesis of the flagship series. It's episodes are short, all average between half an hour and forty minutes. It has nothing to do with palace intrigues but a humble man trying to become a knight. It's far more a comedy and satire then anything we've gotten from Westeros in fifteen years and two shows. And it never takes itself seriously as all the other version have. That it became a popular sensation is not a surprise; that so many critics and awards show found it entertaining – particular after Season Two of House of The Dragon left them underwhelmed – shows there's still life in this franchise yet. Con: Aside from its nomination for Best Drama, the series received only technical nominations from the Emmys. And considering that it's the mirror image of Task – which was nominated for acting, writing and directing awards but not Best Drama – one wonders if the Emmys got its wires crossed with which HBO series to nominate here.

 

Paradise (Hulu) Pro: It was a shock when this show managed to get nominated for Best Drama last year as well as three other acting nominations. This year no one was surprised when it got nine. Usually when most mythology best dramas expand beyond their ordered world it frequently leads to disaster. Paradise avoided the sophomore slump by remembering the reason we all loved this series had nothing to do with the mystery at the center – like all Dan Fogler shows, it was about the people. Starting by expanding the story with the brilliant standalone episode 'Graceland', Paradise showed us all the chaos that took place after the day while mirroring it with all of the chaos that had unfolded after Xavier left the bunker in search of his family. By comparing the real love that is at the center of the Collins family and expertly mirroring it with the trauma Sinatra never got over Season 2 continued to build a new mission even as it destroyed the bunker it had so painstakingly spend Season 1 building and sending us to the third and final season with an argument: "Nothing is irreversible." No show since Lost has equally matched mystery and humanity better and it is a triumph. Con: You get the feel that if Paradise ends up taking the grand prize it will probably be for its final season. Plus if any post-apocalyptic show wins the Emmy this year, there's a far more likely contender a little down the road.

 

The Pitt (HBO MAX) EXPERTS PICK, MY PICK: Pro: Never has a series come around exactly when America needed it then The Pitt did when it debuted last January and Season 2 has just confirmed that its still everything we need. Watching the title emergency room on July 3rd we watched the same chaos we saw unfold last season with that same level of trauma. An old regular who'd been there for years passed away on their watch. A victim of sexual assault came in and painfully underwent a rape exam. We witnessed a terminally ill patient decide to end her life in real time. A potential cyber attack forced the ER to go analog – something none of its younger staff were used for. And through it all Dr. Robby, the center of calm during Season 1, spend the day before going on sabbatical increasingly showing signs of fraying patience with everyone around him in a way that became increasingly obvious to his co-workers. Yet to an extent every major staffer is dealing with this deeper PTSD from working at this ER whether it is Langdon coming out of rehab, Mel not able to adjust to her sister having more of a life then her or Dana still not over the assault that happened last year. It is a triumph on every level. It's already won at both the Astras and the TCA for Best Drama for Season 2. The coronation seems close at hand. Con: As we all learned last year we can't take anything for granted and there are quite a few formidable contenders. Such as…

 

Pluribus (Apple TV) DARK HORSE. Pro: Vince Gilligan returned to television and gave us one of the greatest masterpieces of 2025. A series that showed us the alien invasion in a way his work on The X-Files never did in a way television has not demonstrated in almost 25 years of Peak TV. When a hive mind takes over Eart leaving only thirteen people unaffected for most of Season 1 we focus on Carol Sturka (played by the incomparable Rhea Seehorn) the angriest woman on Earth before this began and perhaps the only woman left alive who still knows what it means to be a human. Most of the series is done in long segments of 'show, not tell', frequently with Carol one of the few characters on the screen, then in the second half of the series focusing on Manousos in Paraguay, perhaps the only unaffected person who shares Carol's views about the hive. Pluribus is a series with all the touches were used to from the man who brought us Breaking Bad and Better Call Saul with details that any other showrunner would omit becoming small but vital parts to our enjoyment of the show. (The first meeting between the two people who have to save the world takes place over Google translate.) Next to The Pitt, Pluribus is the most nominated drama with an impressive 19 and is likely to go toe to toe with it in almost every major category. Throw in the fact the Emmys really owes Gilligan for completely skunking Better Call Saul and you can see why it might be chosen. Con:  Every time Pluribus has gone head to head with The Pitt, it has lost whether it is the first season (Golden Globes, Critics' Choice)or second season (Astras, TCA) I really can't see that changing on Emmy night.

 

Slow Horses (Apple TV) Pro: Over the last two years Slow Horses has kind of become a sleeper agent at the Emmys, each year taking a critical prize (Writing in 2024, Directing in 2025) from juggernauts that were overly favored to win. Nearly simultaneously the entire world seems to have fallen in love with the motley crew at Slough House who someone manages to keep saving London from terrorist attacks with the reluctance of the Park and their own boss Jackson Lamb. (Gary Oldman's going to get an Emmy someday.) And honestly few series in the 2020s have dealt with such dark subject and have been such fun to enjoy every moment. The current season which deals with terror attacks, political assassinations and the fact that most of the Slow Horses are still suffering PTSD from the fact their headquarters was invaded and one of their own was killed in front of them. And yet every time you watch the show you get the sense that everyone in the cast, from Oldman and Kristin Scott Thomas down to Saskia Reeves and Jonathan Pryce, are having the absolute time of their lives. I don't know how many seasons this show has in it but considering that Mick Herron just wrote another novel for the series, I could live with this strange, strange game going on forever – or at least until it won Best Drama. Con: I can see it snatching one, maybe two small prizes from The Pitt or Pluribus but when it comes to the grand prize, well, let's just say there's a better chance of Lady Di giving Jackson Lamb a knighthood.

 

Your Friends & Neighbors (Apple TV) Pro: Jonathan Topper's show about a former hedge fund manager who becomes a cat burglar became a sleeper hit back in 2025 and it has all the makings of one of those shows that works well in Apple TV's staples. It has an impressive cast headed by Jon Hamm, an interesting plot line that looks like a more fun version of Breaking Bad and unlike far too many dramas on both network it has never pretended to be anything other than what it is. Con: The show made history in a bad way when it became the first drama series in over thirty years when its nomination for Best Drama was the sole nominee for the show. We've seen how this plays out for actors over the years, it sure as hell isn't going to work for this series.

 

Prediction: You can't take anything for granted but I'm pretty sure The Pitt will repeat as Best Drama. And despite my preference for some of the other series in this category, I have no problem with that.

 

Tomorrow I deal with Best Actor in a Drama. It's going to be an honor to lose to Noah Wyle…and some of the nominees already have.

 

 

No comments:

Post a Comment