Wednesday, August 19, 2026

My Predictions for the 2026 Emmys, Week 1, Part 3: Outstanding Lead Actress in A Comedy

 

As has been the case for pretty much the entire decade this category is filled with a vast array of talent and an overwhelming favorite. We have three previous winners from this decade, a TV icon nominated for playing another TV iconic role and a brilliant young actress in this category for the for her second TV comedy who hasn't even turned 28 yet.

Next year we're going to have a wide open race where someone new will prevail  but for now, let's go through the nominees.

 

Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary. For Playing: Janine, an elementary school teacher finding her way through occupational and personal difficulties. Pro: Just as with the show itself, every year I keep thinking that there's no way that Brunson can top what she's done in the previous season. And every year Brunson keeps finding ways to prove me wrong. Sometimes it's opening entirely new fronts, such as when she broke up with Gregory and then got so completely drunk that she reached a level of unpleasantness that managed to stun Ava who'd brought her on that night out. Sometimes its with her basic goodness as we see her trying to find new strategies to get Abbott out of the mall and manage to save the livelihood of everybody. And in recent years it’s the delightful fun we get with her romantic byplay with Gregory, whether it is nerdy love in their Halloween costumes, the way they do role play to buy a new home, the way that they break up over going on a trip and the way they find their way to back each other. (You know, with a little help.) Brunson continues to astonish as a writer and a performer and there's never a moment I don't love her onscreen. Con: Brunson actually has gotten more than enough respect from the Emmys already with a prize for writing in its freshman season and for acting in its second. I have no objection to her getting more down the road but there are more deserving performers who do deserve more recognition.

 

Ayo Edebiri, The Bear. For Playing: Sydney, the lead chef of a restaurant which is on a deadline before it goes bankrupt. Pro: Edebiri is the only actor on this show who has been nominated every season its been on the air. With good reason. In a series where nearly every character is suffering from trauma so deep it has made their ability to function almost impossible Syd is the only one who is capable of seeing beyond the trauma with a  genuine vision, a support system and a genuine love for what she does. Even as the pressure on The Bear mounts to succeed or bust – literally -  Syd manages to find a way to keep going that is awe-inspiring on a show that barely registers as a comedy most times. She's already become a hyphenate both on TV and film and in a season that was big on style and low on sense she kept things going. Con: The moment she lost to Jean Smart two years ago was the first domino that led to The Bear peaking in the minds of the critical and audience imagination. There are signs that the show may have regained its forward momentum for its final season but Edebiri has never beaten Jean Smart and that's not going to change this year.

 

Elle Fanning, Margo's Got Money Troubles (Dark Horse). For Playing: Margo, a college dropout turned single mother who turns to OnlyFans to find financial security. Pro: She's a distant, distant second in this category but much like the title character she plays one can never truly rule Fanning out. Her work as Margo was arguably the greatest comic performance by an actress in a freshman series (Matthew Rhys had the one by an actor) and that was because she made Margo a complete mess and yet lovable every step of the way. She was trying to be a good mother, trying to find a way to use her literary gifts and trying to find a way to be a good daughter. And I loved the way she did it all the way through, whether its rating penises like Pokémon characters, going into fight against unknown forces or Only Fans leads, creating a web personality based on a wrestling character, singing with her mother in Vegas or getting to know her father. I had no use for any of Fanning's work in The Great; Margo shows that she has all of the talent that her sister has in this format. The fact that her sister is also nominated this year in a different category makes for one of the best stories this Emmy season. Con: Honestly she can afford to wait. Margo's Got Money Troubles has been renewed for a second season which means she'll be back in the ranks soon enough. She's got time for the Emmys to give her her due.

 

Lisa Kudrow, The Comeback. For Playing: Valerie Cherish, a former TV star who is leading a new sitcom that is entirely being written by AI. Pro: You have to love a show where the lead character has done three seasons in twenty years and somehow still hasn't learned a damn thing. Its amazing that every decade Kudrow brings Val back and somehow she's simultaneously completely behind the times and has a perfect view of the industry. We see this as Val finds herself fighting her dream of running her own comedy but is now at the forefront of a battle she has no comprehension of how to fight. It's hysterical that a woman who has a camera on her at all times really can't seem to understand her industry and Kudrow has been exceptional and making you realize that Val is not the hero Hollywood asked for but the hero…that doesn't even know the meaning of the word. It's really astonishing Kudrow has been nominated for every season her show has been on the era but that's because she is the icon that Val only believes she is and she never lets us forget it. Con: The thing is, The Comeback has always been more of a critical sensation then an awards one and the critics keep forgetting. The Comeback was favored by some to be among the leaders in nominations in this category and instead it only received three with Kudrow being another one.  And as much as the critics love Val its always been a cult sensation in an era where that's basically becoming rarer. Even if Kudrow didn't have the misfortune of competing against another icon, I really don't think she'd have much of a chance of winning.

 

Jean Smart, Hacks. (EXPERTS PICK, MY PICK) For Playing: Deb Vance, trying to write the final line of her legacy in a long and storied career. Pro: My readers know that during the 2010s in particular I was very annoyed when the same actors and actresses won the Emmy in one category year in and year out. So why am I not bothered that Jean Smart is doing the exact same thing I abhorred the Emmys doing for Julia Louis-Dreyfus six consecutive years? Honestly because Smart deserves it more. During the first two decades of this century she was playing iconic roles in some of the best dramas and limited series of that period and she never got an Emmy. Also Veep was a much crueler comedy then Hacks is, a show that is about a love story between Deb Vance and Ava Daniels. And honestly watching the final season of Hacks I didn't want the show to end because it meant I was never going to see another moment of Smart's incredible work as Deb and how she kept finding new ways to make her character funnier and lovable. Her determination to form her legacy after being cancelled from late night. Trying to build a nightclub and casino in Vegas. Going on The Amazing Race with DJ. Pretending to be the lesbian lover of Ava so she can get a Bob Mackie outfit. Fighting back after being beaten by the network to end up doing the biggest crowd in a comedy event in Central Park. And in the series finale making plans to end her life on her own terms – and then comedy saves her yet again. How can I not want Smart to tie the records held by such talents as Alison Janney and Julia Louis-Dreyfus for most Emmys won by a female performer? That's a legacy Deb could be proud of. Con: The off, off chance that the Emmys will recognize someone else. But this is the final season of Hacks. They're not going to ruin her legacy any more than the show is.

 

PREDICTION: The final season of Hacks cemented the legacy of Deb Vance. The Emmys will cement Smart's in a month.

 

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy. I have the same prediction for the winner last year…but we saw how that played out.

No comments:

Post a Comment